奇虎360作为业内最便宜最精准的宅男流量来源，遭到华尔街做空机构严重质疑其流量数据的真实性，并希望其退市。

华尔街有一些做空机构，他们是通过各种手段了解公司的负面信息，然后事先做空该负面公司，通过信息披露来达到做空盈利的目的。

这样的机构存在于市场，对于有效市场(effective market)华尔街来说，信息透明的目的就达到了,信息不对称被遏制。

小编看了那份Anonymous Analytics的质疑报告，主要说：奇虎360的主要收入来源是浏览器的首页hao.360.cn。偶尔的机会AA发现hao.360.cn一段时间里放了一条权威调研机构comScore的监测代码，然后过几天又撤下去了。AA就通过第三方渠道，拿到了comscore对hao.360.cn的监测数据，然后AA将comScore与奇虎360披露艾瑞的数据作对比发现艾瑞与360联合作弊将hao.360.cn的流量做的高于百度的hao123.com.而真实的数据却差得很远，报告中把数据陈列了出来。该机构表示：“奇虎360导航页的流量远低于公司对资本市场披露的数据，目的是将奇虎360变成一个并不存在的互联网巨擘。”此外，Anonymous Analytics还暗示中概股造假现象普遍，奇虎只是一个典型案例。

最后报道还数落了一下奇虎360的高层，说你既然作假就做的彻底一点，为何要放comScore的检测代码？

Without the tag, we would still have been able to acquire the comScore data. However, the data would
have been compiled using the panel method. Management would have been able to claim that the data
was completely inaccurate and the results were affected by sampling error and anti-virus programs.
Management would then go on to insist that hao.360.cn gets incredible amounts of traffic that isn’t
being properly measured. In fact, this was their defense when confronted by their Alexa ranking.

So, why would management risk putting the tag on their website?

AA奇虎360调研报告如下

http://anonanalytics.com/pdf/Qihoo.pdf

请看如下跟踪报导

　　近期，美国做空机构开始重出江湖，发起对中国概念股的第二轮空袭狂潮。当地时间2日，美国做空机构匿名分析（Anonymous Analytics）在其网站发布针对奇虎360的质疑报告，认为奇虎存在流量造假问题，应该被勒令退市。

　　Anonymous Analytics在报告中引用美国互联网流量监测机构comScore的数据，认为奇虎360夸大了360安全网址的流量。该机构表示：“奇虎360导航页的流量远低于公司对资本市场披露的数据，目的是将奇虎360变成一个并不存在的互联网巨擘。”此外，Anonymous Analytics还暗示中概股造假现象普遍，奇虎只是一个典型案例。

　　受此影响，奇虎股价在当天美股交易时段上演“大跳水”行情，从上涨5%到暴跌7.46%，甚至触发了美国证券交易委员会的卖空限制机制，最终收报16美元。

　　随后，奇虎360首席财务官（CFO）徐祚立作出回应，认为Anonymous Analytics报告是不准确的，报告从根本上来说只不过是在重复其他卖空机构此前所说内容，奇虎360已在此前作出否认和澄清。奇虎的回击起到立竿见影的效果，奇虎股价在美股盘后交易时段回涨近8%。

　　Anonymous Analytics是一家成立时间不到一年的做空调研机构，该机构也是继香橼研究后，又一家质疑奇虎360的做空机构。不过，奇虎360遭到了香橼5轮的袭击，都未引起资本市场大的波澜。

　　中国企业过去一年内屡屡遭遇做空机构的阻击，这类机构可以通过打压股价获利，他们的主要武器是寻找目标企业的会计丑闻和管理漏洞。此前，香橼研究发表报告，令中国地产巨头恒大地产的市值一夕之间蒸发近80亿港元。

编者注：做空机构Anonymous Analytics7月2日发布报告指控奇虎360(NYSE:QIHU)虚增用户流量。奇虎360周一否认了Anonymous Analytics的指控。该公司360 CFO徐祚立称，Anonymous Analytics报告中所援引的信息是“不准确的”。他表示：“这份报告从根本上来说只不过是其他卖空机构此前所说内容的重复”，而奇虎360已在此前作出否认和澄清。

　　对此，7月5日，Anonymous Analytics在雪球网回答了网友的提问。

　　以下是Anonymous Analytics的回信：

　　First, please thank your community for their questions. We are happy to answer as many questions as they have until they either make up their mind that we are right, or that we are lying.

　　首先，感谢雪球用户的提问。我们很高兴回答奇虎存在的这么多的问题，直到他们做出决定是我们对了还是我们在撒谎。

　　1) If AA as you said is not involved in any short selling, how do you guys get profits?

　　We don’t discuss our sources of information, or our funding. However, we are not short sellers and have no interest if the stock price of the companies we report on fall or not. This is one of the reasons we never write follow-up reports. Our readers are free to read our view, and management’s response and figure out who makes more sense. We do this mostly for the fun and challenge. We all have regular day jobs.

　　提问：如果没有直接或间接做空，你们的利益从哪些渠道获得？

　　回答：我们不会披露信息及资金的来源，同时我们也不是做空者。无论分析对象的股价下跌或上涨，我们都不会从中获利，这是我们不写后续报告的原因之一。读者可以免费浏览我们的报告，以及管理层的回应，进而判断谁的观点更有意义。我们有自己的固定工作，之所以做这件事，主要是为了乐趣和挑战。

　　2) Which is the most reliable source to get internet traffic stats, Google Trends? Alexa or any others?

　　comScore is acknowledged to be the most reliable source of traffic data which is why the company can charge for its data. There are other good (free) sources out there, including Alexa and Compete. However, Compete is not very good for websites outside the US. In any case, comScore is recognized to be the most reliable source of information. This is why most of the big companies use comScore.

　　提问：你们认为，目前衡量网站流量的第三方公开产品中哪些产品衡量效果最为可靠？Google Trends、Alexa或者是其它？

　　回答：comScore是被公认为最可靠的流量数据来源，这也是很多公司给他们付钱买数据的原因。除此之外，还有一些其他好的（免费）流量数据来源，包括Alexa和Compete。然而，Compete对美国以外的互联网公司来说并不是太准确。总之，comScore是被公认最可靠的数据来源，这也是为什么大多数大公司采用comScore的原因。

　　3) Qihoo has 200-300 ads customers, how does the company prove its performance for the customers?

　　First, 200-300 is a huge range. If this is the range Qihoo gave, that’s already a warning sign. If you ask me how many siblings I have, I am not going to tell you “somewhere between 5 and 10.” I am going to give you a much more exact figure. Qihoo should know exactly how many people are paying them for their ad space.

　　In any case, we don’t believe Qihoo has as many customers as the Company claims. Most of the links on their site don’t have tracking tags, so it’s impossible for paying customers to know how many people are clicking on the links, which makes it impossible to figure out if it’s worth advertising with Qihoo. Qihoo responds to this by saying that many of their customers don’t use tracking tags because they saw consistent monthly traffic from hao.360.cn and decided to remove the tracking tag. But this doesn’t make any sense because Qihoo reports explosive traffic volume every quarter. How can they claim traffic keeps increasing substantially every month, and also claim their clients removed the tracking tag because they saw consistent traffic? There is no logic to their statements.

　　As for the clients that they do have, it’s easy to tell them one thing and tell investors something else. For example, for new clients, they can tell them “hey, normally we charge this price (whatever they claim in their financial statements), but because you are new, we are going to give you a cheap price (the competitive price they actually charge)”. Then, to old clients they can turn and say “hey, you know, we are charging new guys so much more now, but because you are a long time client, we are going to keep giving you a discount.”

　　It is so easy to create a disconnect between customers and financial statements. Many fraudulent companies do that. This is not something unique.

　　提问：奇虎有200-300个广告客户，他怎么证明自己的广告效果？

　　回答：首先，200-300是个很大的范围。如果这是奇虎提供的数字，那这已经是个预警信号了。如果你问我有多少兄弟姐妹？我不会回答5-10这样的范围，而会是一个确切的数。奇虎应该知道他具体有多少广告客户。

　　我不相信奇虎有他自己所说的那么多客户。他们导航页上的大部分链接都没有跟踪标记，所以不可能知道有多少人点击了该链接；这样他们导航页上的广告价值也就很难衡量。奇虎对此回应称，他们的许多客户都没有使用跟踪标签，因为他们看到从hao.360.cn来的流量每个月都差不多，所以移除了跟踪标签。但是另一方面，奇虎的财报却宣称自己的流量每个月都在迅速增长。这样说法前后矛盾，完全没有逻辑。

　　他们对客户是一种说法，对投资者又是另一种说法。利润，对新客户，他们会说：“嗨，我们每个月的价格都会变动（不管他们在财报上是怎么说的），但我们可以给你这样的新客户一个优惠价（很有竞争力的价格）”对于老客户，他又会说：“嗨，你知道我们现在对新客户要加很高，但因为我们合作这么长时间了，所以我们会继续给你折扣价。”

　　这样他们的在对客户的说法和财务报表之间是脱节的；很多做假的公司都这么做。这并不鲜见。

　　4) If the traffic volume is a fraud, can you comment on the CPC ads system Qihoo is planning to launch.

　　The CPC system is just talk right now, so there’s no point in putting too much weight on it. Qihoo has promised a lot of things and delivered very little. They promised an independent verification of their traffic 7 months ago and still nothing. No company on earth would take 7 months, especially an internet company that claims to be one of the biggest in China. If you asked us for independent verification of our website, we could have it for you in 2 months maximum. Maybe we should send our team over to Qihoo to help to speed up the process.

　　提问：如果奇虎的流量存在造假，请你对奇虎即将推出的CPC广告系统做出评价？

　　回答：（奇虎）的CPC系统目前为止都只是说说，所以目前没必要对它看太重。奇虎历来都是承诺了一大堆，但只做到一点点。7个月前他们承诺对流量做独立审核，但现在什么都没有。地球上没有一家公司对此需要7个月时间，尤其是对一家号称自己是中国最大的互联网公司之一的公司来说。如果你要我们核实自己的网站，我最多需要2个月时间。也许我们应该让我们的团队到奇虎去帮他们快速完成此事。

　　5) How did you get the comScore statistics as they didn’t publish these data.

　　Our sources got them directly from comScore. comScore sells data to third parties. This is part of their business model. We have provided the information to several journalists who have corroborated our information. For example, we gave a copy of the information to Parmy Olson at Forbes Magazine who used it to write an article. Now, comScore has stopped providing them because they are in a very difficult situation. If they provide them to the public, they risk losing business with Qihoo and they risk a situation people can begin to use the comScore data against their clients.

　　提问：你是通过什么途径拿到 comScore 流量报告的？

　　回答：我们的线人直接从 comScore 手上获得这些报告的，comScore 有把数据卖给第三方，这是他们的商业模式之一。我们也把这些信息提供给了几位能证明我们判断的记者。例如，我们向《福布斯》杂志的记者 Parmy Olson 提供了这些资料，她据此写了一篇文章（http://www.forbes.com/sites/parmyolson/2012/07/03/anonymous-rattles-a-chinese-web-giant/）。

　　现在，comScore 已经不再公开这些数据了，因为他们现在的处境很尴尬。如果 comScore 公开这些数据，他们将要承担失去奇虎这一客户的风险，日后，也可能越来越多人希望利用 comScore 的数据针对他们的客户。

　　（译注： Olson 与 Anonymous 有密切关系，她对这个组织进行了长达一年的调查，并据此出版了“We Are Anonymous: Inside the Hacker World of LulzSec”一书：http://www.theverge.com/2012/6/7/3070945/parmy-olson-inside-anonymous-five-minutes-on-the-verge）。

　　6) What make you be interested in Qihoo and Zhou Hongyi?

　　We noticed Qihoo after several parties wrote articles on the company. We read the articles, and we read Qihoo’s response and found the responses very strange. We felt an internet company should provide more sophisticated responses than what they were giving. Also, we know a little bit about the internet and how IT works, so we thought we would look into the matter ourselves.

　　提问：你为什么突然对奇虎和周鸿祎感兴趣？

　　回答：我们是在看了一些关于奇虎的文章之后开始关注这家公司的。我们读了那些文章，又读了奇虎的回应，发现奇虎的回应很奇怪。作为一家互联网公司，奇虎在历次回复中提供的信息远远不够。此外，我们恰好懂点互联网和IT原理，因此我们觉得我们应该亲自调查一下他们。

　　7) Is there any other chinese companies in your watchlist?

　　Not really. We are no longer looking at China. It’s not fair to only target Chinese companies when there are so many frauds in the West as well.

　　提问：还有其他中国公司是你们的做空目标吗？

　　回答：并没有，我们不再只盯着中国，西方同样有许多欺诈发生，光把中国作为目标不公平。

　　8) Qihu said the data you quoted is just ” sampling data “, what’s your response for that?

　　The comScore data we provided for hao.360.cn was gathered using a tag method, which captures 100% of all traffic. This is not a sample. It’s all traffic. However, we compared hao.360.cn data to hao123.com. Now, the hao123.com data was gathered by sampling because hao123.com does not have a comScore tag. But Qihoo has stated so many times that because of anti-virus software, sampling data actually understates traffic volume. If we are to believe this, it means that it’s possible that hao123.com actually gets more traffic than what the comScore data shows, which means that hao.360.cn gets even less traffic than hao123.com’s true traffic volume.

　　In any case, why is it only Qihoo that always says all these other independent third parties are understating their traffic? No other company out of China is making this claim.

　　It’s funny because iResearch uses sampling data too, but Qihoo has no problem referring to iResearch 66 times in their IPO.

　　提问：奇虎表示你们引用的数据是“抽样数据”，你们对此如何回应？

　　回答：我们提供的comScore关于hao.360.cn的数据是用加码方式收集的 ，也就是抓取100%流量，这并不是抽样，而是全部流量。然而，我们对比 hao.360.cn 和 hao123.com数据时，hao123.com 使用的是抽样数据，因为hao123并没有加comScore代码。但奇虎也曾多次表示过由于杀毒软件，抽样数据相对于总流量来说事实上是一个保守的统计。如果是这样，这意味着可能hao123比comScore显示的数据拥有更多地流量，而hao.360.cn 实际比 hao123的真实流量低得更多。

　　此外，为什么只有奇虎一直在声称第三方低估了他们的流量，没有其他中国公司这么说。

　　更有意思的是，艾瑞使用的也是抽样数据，但奇虎对自己在IPO中引用了66次艾瑞抽样数据却毫无任何问题。

　　Hope these answers are informative.

　　希望这些答案有所帮助